S&P study joins others pointing to looming strains on global copper supply in the EV era.
A study conducted by S&P Global and funded in part by copper producers warns of a potential growing mismatch between available copper supply and future demand resulting from energy sector transition away from fossil fuels.
The study, titled “The Future of Copper: Will the Looming Supply Gap Short-circuit the Energy Transition?” was researched and prepared by New York City-based S&P Global and, according to the firm, was supported by several multinational mining and metals firms, including Anglo American plc; Antofagasta plc; BHP Ltd.; Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A.; Freeport-McMoRan Inc; Glencore plc; Ivanhoe Mines Ltd; Rio Tinto Corp.; Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd; Taseko Mines Ltd.; Teck Resources Ltd.; Lundin Mining Co.; Trafigura Group Pte. Ltd.; and Vale Limited Mining Co.
S&P predicts global copper demand could nearly double during the next decade, from 25 million metric tons annually now to about 50 million metric tons in 2035. The added copper would be needed “to deploy the technologies critical to achieving net-zero [carbon emissions] by 2050 goals.”
The study is not the first to tie added copper demand to the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and alternative energy technology. Earlier this year, an analyst with CME warned of mined copper supply that was lagging future demand projections. Last year a study by consultancy Wood Mackenzie looked at the impact of copper demand based on EV growth in China alone, and in 2017, research firm IDTechEx and the International Copper Association (ICA) tied the predicted growth in global EV sales to a spike in copper demand
Copper scrap is far more often recycled instead of being discarded, but investments are being made to boost copper recycling, nonetheless. In North America, two German-based companies, Aurubis and Wieland, are among those investing in new copper scrap conversion capacity.
The record-high level of demand would be sustained and continue to grow to 53 million metric tons in 2050. S&P calls that figure "more than all the copper consumed in the world between 1900 and 2021.”
The demand surge would be driven, in large part, by the rapid, large-scale deployment of technologies such as EVs, charging infrastructure, solar energy, wind and batteries. “More copper intensive than their conventional counterparts, demand from these areas would nearly triple by 2035,” S&P says. “At the same time, copper demand from traditional sources not directly related to the energy transition would continue to grow.”
“Copper is the metal of electrification and absolutely essential to the energy transition,” says Daniel Yergin, vice chair of S&P Global. “Given the global consensus for net-zero emissions by 2050, it is critical to understand the physical materials required for achieving that ambition. The world has never produced so much copper in such a short timeframe as would be required. On current trends, the doubling of global copper demand by 2035 would result in significant shortfalls.”
S&P says growth in new copper supply capacity—from new mines or expansions of existing projects—would unlikely be able to keep pace with the surge in demand. That leaves increases in capacity utilization (output as a percentage of an existing mine's total capacity) and recycling as the main sources of additional supply, according to the study.
Under current trends—whereby both capacity utilization and recycling rates remain at their current 10-year global average—one of the study’s scenarios projects annual supply shortfalls that could reach nearly 10 million metric tons in 2035. That is equivalent to 20 percent of the demand projected to be required for a 2050 net-zero world.
“This comprehensive analysis demonstrates that, even at the outer edge of what could happen in copper mining and refining operations, there would not be enough supply to meet the demands of a net-zero-emissions-by-2050 world,” says Mohsen Bonakdarpour of S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Even strong price signals and incentivizing policy initiatives, aggressive capacity utilization rates and all-time high recycling rates would not be enough to close the gap.”
The study also posits that the burgeoning supply gap would exacerbate a reliance on copper imports in the United States. Imports made up nearly 44 percent of U.S. copper usage in 2021—up from just 10 percent in 1995. Under the study’s scenarios, that share would rise to between 57 and 67 percent by 2035.
The full study can be found here.
Multimillion-dollar investment will result in a molded fiber products plant in Europe.
A partnership between a United States-based company and a United Kingdom-based company has been forged to create what the partners call “one of the largest specialist molded fiber production facilities created in Europe.”
Molded fiber or molded pulp, which can use scrap paper or discarded wood fiber as feedstock, is being backed by circular economy advocates as a material that can replace plastic in some single-use applications, such as coffee cup lids.
The direct-food/beverage contact status of such lids means “we cannot consider adding post-consumer and postindustrial cellulose-based fibers” for this application, says Channing Nuss, director of corporate affairs at Transcend.
He adds, however, “Whenever we are producing non-direct contact (with food/beverage) molded fiber-based products, we will consider adding recycled fibers to the mix.”
When the new lids are discarded, “As these molded fiber lids are made entirely of cellulose fibers, we expect these to be disposed after use in the mixed paper recycling stream from households and municipal collection streams,” says Nuss.
U.K.-based Transcend Packaging and California-based Zume say their announced investment initially will focus on the production of coffee cup lids. “The aim is to initially create 500 million units of capacity by September [of this year], enabling large global food and beverage companies and leading quick service retail (QSR) brands to have an immediately available solution.”
Those lids will be produced at a production facility in Europe that the partners say is in the site assessment stage now regarding exact location. Transcend and Zume says they are aiming for the facility to be “fully functional by mid-2023.”
“We’re excited to work with Zume—using world-leading technology, as they have been instrumental in helping some of the biggest global brands move beyond plastics and EPS [expanded polystyrene] foam products,” says Lorenzo Angelucci, CEO of Transcend Packaging. “It is clear there is a bright future for sustainable packaging that is aligned with current and pending legislation as more brands challenge their current assumptions and look for creative alternatives.”
Alex Garden, Zume’s board chair and CEO, says, “For global brands, maintaining the status quo with plastic use is no longer a viable strategy. The proof will lie in the hands of brands who put a plan in place and see it through. I admire the Transcend team’s passion for using science and technology to make the world a more sustainable place and look forward to the tremendous impact we will have together.”
Zume, which is backed in part by Japan-based fund Softbank, says the planned “multimillion-[U.K.] pound deal” will add to what it call its “already global network of factories in North America and India, with more in planning stages in Latin America and Canada.”
Zume also says its partnership with ABB Robotics enables it to create molded fiber products using ABB’s manufacturing cells and robotic machinery worldwide. Currently, Zume says its process uses “millions of metric tons of various global biomass and converts the natural plant fibers into advanced molded fiber products.” Considering the circular economy targets of the European Union, recycling advocates will be watching to see if recovered fiber is added to this mix.
Company’s chief operating officer Tom Emmerich offers his insight in recent radio interview.
Tom Emmerich, the chief operating officer of Kalamazoo, Michigan-based Schupan and president of its Schupan Recycling business unit, says policymakers in his home state have room to make changes that can increase its recycling volume and rate.
In the interview with Russ White of East Lansing, Michigan-based National Public Radio affiliate WKAR, Schupan was asked several questions about the health of recycling in Michigan.
Emmerich tells the radio station Schupan has its roots in industrial scrap metal recycling and now has five business units, with Schupan Recycling focusing on beverage container recycling in a state that has a deposit-return system, or bottle bill. Emmerich describes that business unit by saying, “We handle a large percentage of all the containers in the state of Michigan.”
When asked about municipal or curbside recycling in Michigan, Emmerich says, “Do we lag other states? We absolutely do. We have like an 18 percent municipal and recycling rate. That’s up a couple percentage points, but it still lags behind the Minnesotas and Wisconsins and a couple other Midwestern states.”
In terms of beverage container recycling, he adds, “We have relied on the deposit law as our marquee recycling program in Michigan, and it’s been incredibly successful. There’s no reason to look at changing that.”
Recycling in Michigan overall, however, could benefit from a funding boost or policy changes, Emmerich says. “It really comes down to funding,” he said of boosting the 18 percent recycling rate. “How much money is the state willing to put back? And mandates. Michigan has really no mandates on banning certain things from landfills. Other states do. The states that do have much higher recycling rates.”
On the policy front, Emmerich says, “I testified for two different bills, House Bill 4443 and House Bill 4444. Those bills were pretty much introduced by the beverage community where they are looking for a half-cent per container income tax credit that would help them invest back into the deposit system. Distributors are responsible for the program. A lot of people don’t understand that. Since day one, they initiate the deposit. They’re required to pick the containers up at retail and properly recycle them.”
Noting that Schupan Recycling is “hired” to “help them with that process,” Emmerich adds, “As costs have gone up over the years and money was taken away from distributors back in the early to mid-90s. They haven’t asked for a penny from the state to help them with infrastructure costs. Our costs are up well over 25 percent in the last five or six years.”
In the case of Schupan, Emmerich says the company needs to make “a significant investment in our Wixom [Michigan] operation that we built 16 years ago. If we don’t, then the cost of maintenance is just going to go up and our ability to service retailers and the consumer is going to go down, and nobody’s going to be happy with that.”
A transcript of the interview between White and Emmerich can be found here.
New Jersey-based recycling firm honored by U.S. Department of Commerce for export volumes in 2021.
Princeton, New Jersey-based MGK International Inc. and its Non-Ferrous Business Development Manager Dipan Patel have been recognized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce with an E-Award for export activities.
“The President’s E-Award for exports [was given] in recognition of the company’s achievement in making significant contributions to an increase in U.S. exports,” Patel says. He calls it “the highest honor given to U.S. exporters.”
The award was presented to Patel by U.S. Department of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimando at a ceremony in July. “This honor is a testament to your hard work exporting your products and services to the global market, and your remarkable resilience during the pandemic,” Raimando said in remarks to the six companies honored.
Raimondo continued, “Today’s E Awards winners contributed to nearly $1.5 billion of exports in goods and services from 2018 through 2021.”
One of the other five winners was Florida-based Montachem International, a plastic and polymers distributor that, among its other business units, “has a program in Haiti to clean up plastics from streets and beaches and recycle them into desks for students,” Raimondo said.
Regarding MKG, she added, “Another E-Award winner that knows a thing or two about recycling is MGK International, which exports scrap metals and polymers.”
On its website, MKG describes itself as part of the Mumbai-based Mehta Trading Co. Group (MTC). Its MGK International business unit was established in July 2007. “During the short span of time, the company has made rapid strides,” the company says. “From a humble beginning we have already achieved a volume of 30,000 tons a month of metal scrap exports to India and the Far East, primarily from the East Coast of the U.S.”
Canadian scrap firm adds locations once operated by Milman Industries.
Brampton, Ontario-based Triple M Metal LP has announced the acquisition of BM Metal Services Inc. and North Bay Salvage from Sudbury, Ontario-based Milman Industries Inc.
The acquisition includes three recycling facilities in the Sudbury area and another in North Bay, Ontario.
“We are extremely proud to welcome the scrap division of BM Metals and North Bay Salvage into the Triple M Metal family,” says Steve Leddy, president of Triple M. “Adding these reputable and well-established businesses into the Triple M portfolio reflects our organization’s commitment to offer to our customers and suppliers best-in-class services.”
Triple M Metal, part of the Giampaolo Group, has been growing in scale for the past several decades. It now has 35 facilities in Canada and the United States and operates shredders, stationary and mobile shears, ferrous and nonferrous balers, a copper and aluminum insulated granulation system and what it calls a state-of-the-art downstream (mixed shredded metals) separator. Its processing capacity allows it to handle more than 4 million tons of metallic scrap annually, the firm says.